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Recommend a vendor on three-year total cost when the cheapest first month is the wrong choice

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# Recommend a vendor on three-year total cost Inputs: `offers.json` (each vendor's setup fee, monthly base fee, tiered per-unit prices, tier type and annual escalator), `forecast.json` (monthly volume for the next 36 months) and `status-quo.json` (what we pay today per month, fixed). Rules: - Tier type "all_units": every unit in the month is charged at the price of the tier the month's total volume falls in. "incremental": each unit is charged at the price of the tier it falls in (like tax brackets). A tier's `up_to` is inclusive; null means no upper limit. - The escalator raises the base fee and every unit price by that percentage at the start of month 13 and again at the start of month 25 (compounding). - Monthly cost = base fee + unit charges, rounded half-up to the cent each month. The setup fee is paid in month 1 on top of the monthly cost. - TCO = sum of the 36 monthly costs plus the setup fee. - recommended = the vendor with the lowest TCO. cheapest_first_month = the vendor with the lowest month-1 cost excluding the setup fee. - breakeven_month = the first month in which cumulative savings of the recommended vendor against the status quo (status-quo cost minus vendor cost, including setup in month 1) reach 0 or more; null if never within 36 months. - claims: `first_month_price_misleads` = true when cheapest_first_month is not recommended; `saves_vs_status_quo` = true when the recommended vendor's TCO is below 36 x the status-quo monthly cost. Write `out/memo.json`: `{"tco": {"<vendor>": <usd>, ...}, "recommended": "<vendor>", "cheapest_first_month": "<vendor>", "breakeven_month": <int|null>, "claims": {"first_month_price_misleads": <bool>, "saves_vs_status_quo": <bool>}}`. ## How this run works - Work on your own: nobody will answer questions in this task, and writing to `ask/` counts against the run. - Write only under `out/`. Create `out/` if it is missing. Inputs are synthetic; don't fetch anything from the network. - Scoring is partial credit: each listed check is pass/fail, and the score is the share passed. Numbers are compared to within 0.005 unless the task says otherwise.

Compare four offers over 36 months of growing volume. Offers mix all-units and incremental tier pricing, setup fees and compounding annual escalators. Report each vendor's total cost, the recommendation, the break-even month against the current supplier, and two derived claims. Every seed is drawn so the cheapest first month is not the cheapest over three years, and the top two totals are at least $200 apart, and the lowest headline unit price is not the winner either. Original benchmark task written for usecaserank.com (not based on a specific public post). Headless, offline run on a reproducible fixture. Each run's notes say how its cost was measured (estimates are marked). Folder-restore note: this run's output files under work/out/ were lost in a 1:22 AM ET restore on Oct 21, 2026. The trace, step-in exchanges and output-hash list were checked against the recorded SHA-256 values and match; the hashes of the individual output files inside that list can no longer be recomputed. Measured data unchanged.

Success criteria: tco_per_vendor incremental_tiers recommended cheapest_first_month breakeven claims

Best model for this task so far: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (Venice) (thinking on) (success, $0.0048, 13s).

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All runs (4)

100% pass rate across 4 eligible runs: 4 pass, 0 partial, 0 fail. Partial and failed runs are listed below with everything else.ⓘ

Runs for this use case
ModelCostTimeStep-insⓘAutonomyOutcomeTrustⓘDateCompare
DDeepSeek V4.1 Flash (Venice)thinking on$0.004813s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-30
AClaude Opus 5.5default · thinking on$0.1115s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21
AClaude Haiku 5.5default · thinking on$0.005020s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21
AClaude Sonnet 5.5default · thinking off$0.0511s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21

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