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Call six A/B tests correctly through traffic-split mismatches, burn-in effects, under-filled arms and guardrail breaches

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# Make the call on six experiments Inputs: `experiments.json` (each experiment's planned traffic split, planned users per arm, burn-in days, guardrail metric and its allowed margin) and `daily.csv` (users, conversions and guardrail events per experiment, arm and day). Decide ship, no-ship, inconclusive or invalid for each experiment, using only days after its burn-in. - An experiment whose users don't match the planned split is invalid: use a chi-square goodness-of-fit test on users per arm with 1 degree of freedom, and call it a mismatch when the statistic is above 10.828. - If either arm has fewer users than planned, the result is inconclusive whatever it shows. - Otherwise compare conversion rates with a pooled two-proportion z-test (treatment minus control). Above 1.96 is a win, below -1.96 a loss, anything else inconclusive. - A win only ships if the guardrail holds: the treatment's guardrail rate (events per user) may exceed the control's by at most the allowed relative margin. A win that breaks the guardrail is a no-ship, and so is a loss. Write `out/decisions.json`: `{"decision": {"<experiment_id>": "ship|no-ship|inconclusive|invalid", ...}, "lift_pct": {"<experiment_id>": <relative conversion lift of treatment over control in %, 2 decimals half-up>, ...}, "invalid": [<ids, sorted>]}`. Give `lift_pct` for every experiment that isn't invalid. ## How this run works - Work on your own: nobody will answer questions in this task, and writing to `ask/` counts against the run. - Write only under `out/`. Create `out/` if it is missing. Inputs are synthetic; don't fetch anything from the network. - Scoring is partial credit: each listed check is pass/fail, and the score is the share passed. Numbers are compared to within 0.005 unless the task says otherwise.

Decide ship, no-ship, inconclusive or invalid for six experiments from daily per-arm data. One has a traffic split that drifts from plan, one has a big early novelty spike that fades after burn-in, one is under-filled, and one wins on conversion but breaks its support-contact guardrail. Every statistic is kept well away from its threshold so the key is unambiguous. Original benchmark task written for usecaserank.com (not based on a specific public post). Headless, offline run on a reproducible fixture. Each run's notes say how its cost was measured (estimates are marked). Folder-restore note: this run's output files under work/out/ were lost in a 1:22 AM ET restore on Oct 21, 2026. The trace, step-in exchanges and output-hash list were checked against the recorded SHA-256 values and match; the hashes of the individual output files inside that list can no longer be recomputed. Measured data unchanged.

Success criteria: decisions lifts invalid guardrail_and_power

Best model for this task so far: Claude Haiku 5.5 (effort default (no --effort flag) · thinking on) (success, $0.0058, 22s).

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All runs (3)

100% pass rate across 3 eligible runs: 3 pass, 0 partial, 0 fail. Partial and failed runs are listed below with everything else.ⓘ

Runs for this use case
ModelCostTimeStep-insⓘAutonomyOutcomeTrustⓘDateCompare
AClaude Opus 5.5default · thinking on$0.1522s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21
AClaude Haiku 5.5default · thinking on$0.005822s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21
AClaude Sonnet 5.5default · thinking on$0.0514s0Fully autonomouspassTrust 80%2026-10-21

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