Claude Sonnet 5.5 (effort default (no --effort flag) · thinking on) on Size reorders from sales history that hides lost demand on empty-shelf days, promotions and item code changes

AClaude Sonnet 5.5default · thinking on · Claude Code 2.1.299 (headless -p) · cloud · 2026-10-21 · by @bobsiopener

Trust 80%Fully autonomoussuccess · first tryCompare

Estimated cost: $0.06
Wall time: 14s
Human step-ins: 0
Outcome: Pass

Compare with other models on this task →

Exact prompt

# Work out this week's reorder quantities Inputs: `daily_sales.csv` (last 56 days: units sold and units left on the shelf at close, per item), `promotions.csv`, `sku_changes.csv`, `items.json` (supplier lead time and cover target per item, units on hand now) and `purchase_orders.csv`. Estimate each item's normal daily demand, then size an order for every current item. - Normal daily demand is the average of units sold on days that reflect normal demand. Sales on a day the shelf ran empty don't show the full demand, and promotion days aren't normal. - Some items changed code during the period; treat the old and new codes as one item's history and report under the current code. - Order quantity = demand x (lead time + cover days), rounded up to a whole unit, minus units on hand now and units already on order, and never below 0. - Only purchase orders that are still going to arrive count as on order. Write `out/reorder.json`: `{"daily_demand": {"<sku>": <units, 2 decimals half-up>, ...}, "order_qty": {"<sku>": <n>, ...}, "to_order": [<skus with order_qty > 0, sorted>], "censored_days": <n>}`. `censored_days` is the number of item-days excluded because the shelf ran empty (after merging codes; a promotion day on which the shelf ran empty counts as a promotion day, not here). ## How this run works - Work on your own: nobody will answer questions in this task, and writing to `ask/` counts against the run. - Write only under `out/`. Create `out/` if it is missing. Inputs are synthetic; don't fetch anything from the network. - Scoring is partial credit: each listed check is pass/fail, and the score is the share passed. Numbers are compared to within 0.005 unless the task says otherwise.

Estimate normal daily demand for 8-11 items from 56 days of sales and size this week's orders. Empty-shelf days understate demand, promotion days overstate it, two items changed code mid-period, and some purchase orders are cancelled or already received. A plain average, a promo-only correction, or counting every PO as on order each gives different order quantities. Original benchmark task written for usecaserank.com (not based on a specific public post). Headless, offline run on a reproducible fixture. Each run's notes say how its cost was measured (estimates are marked). Folder-restore note: this run's output files under work/out/ were lost in a 1:22 AM ET restore on Oct 21, 2026. The trace, step-in exchanges and output-hash list were checked against the recorded SHA-256 values and match; the hashes of the individual output files inside that list can no longer be recomputed. Measured data unchanged.

Success criteria: demand order_qty to_order censored_days code_merge

Setup notes: Batch 19 case u03-reorder-from-censored-sales (offline, synthetic inputs, seed 189566658). Autonomous case: no stand-in user and no step-ins expected; any file the solver wrote to ask/ is counted as a measured intervention (0) and blocks a pass. Prompt = TASK.md verbatim. Hidden key kept outside the solver's work dir. Scored with the case's scorer (python3 score.py WORKDIR KEYDIR, absolute paths); pass = every check true and no ask/ files. Tools: Read/Write/Edit/Glob/Grep/Bash, web disabled. Single run, no retries. 1-min load average at scoring 0.44 (8 cores). Time-zone results depend on the system time-zone database: tzdata 2026c-0+deb13u1 (Python zoneinfo). Claude Code's own reported cost for claude-sonnet-5.5: $0.062911. Score: 5/5. Cost is an ESTIMATE: measured tokens x pricing.json list price (Claude Pro subscription, nothing billed); input_tokens include cache reads and writes. Single run.

Estimated cost List-price estimate; not actually billed.

Metrics

Estimated cost: $0.06
Wall time: 14s
Human step-ins: 0
Turns: 4

Model usage
Model	Input tok	Output tok	Cost
AClaude Sonnet 5.5anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5effort default (no --effort flag) · thinking on	81,815	1,722	$0.06

Reproduce this run

Use the use case prompt on the use case page.
Same setup: Claude Sonnet 5.5 (anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5, effort default (no --effort flag) · thinking on) via Claude Code 2.1.299 (headless -p), cloud.
It counts as a success only if it meets every success criterion: demand order_qty to_order censored_days code_merge
Log model, tokens, wall time, human step-ins and the evidence log, then submit it as a reproduction. A different model? Submit a head-to-head rerun.

How runs are scored: Methodology.

Was this useful?

⇄ Rerun on another model

Automated checks

Trust 80% comes from these checks (how Trust % works).

Run date is not in the future : passed
Model is in the dated pricing table : passed
Cost recomputed from tokens matches : passed
Cached tokens are consistent : passed
Output throughput is plausible : passed
Autonomy matches step-ins : passed
Step-ins do not exceed turns : passed
Retries agree with first-try result : passed
Evidence log SHA-256 matches : passed
Evidence log is substantial : passed

Evidence log

[
 {
  "duration_api_ms": 12621,
  "stop_reason": "end_turn",
  "session_id": "[REDACTED]",
  "total_cost_usd": 0.0629113,
  "usage": {
   "input_tokens": 8,
   "cache_creation_input_tokens": 9614,
   "cache_read_input_tokens": 72193,
   "output_tokens": 1722,
   "output_tokens_details": {
    "thinking_tokens": 159
   },
   "server_tool_use": {
    "web_search_requests": 0,
    "web_fetch_requests": 0
   },
   "service_tier": "standard",
   "cache_creation": {
    "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 9614,
    "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0
   },
   "inference_geo": "global",
   "iterations": [
    {
     "input_tokens": 2,
     "output_tokens": 350,
     "cache_read_input_tokens": 21050,
     "cache_creation_input_tokens": 1103,
     "cache_creation": {
      "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0,
      "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 1103
     },
     "type": "message"
    }
   ],
   "speed": "standard",
   "fallback_credit": null
  },
  "modelUsage": {
   "claude-sonnet-5-5": {
    "inputTokens": 8,
    "outputTokens": 1722,
    "cacheReadInputTokens": 72193,
    "cacheCreationInputTokens": 9614,
    "webSearchRequests": 0,
    "costUSD": 0.0629113,
    "contextWindow": 1000000,
    "maxOutputTokens": 128000,
    "thinkingTokens": 159,
    "canonicalModel": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
    "provider": "firstParty",
    "costBasis": "list"
   }
  },
  "permission_denials": [],
  "terminal_reason": "completed",
  "fast_mode_state": "off",
  "fast_mode_disabled_reason": "sdk_opt_in_required",
  "subagent_stats": {
   "spawned": 0,
   "requested": {
    "background": 0,
    "foreground": 0,
    "unset": 0
   },
   "started_in_background": 0,
   "max_depth": 0,
   "spawned_by_subagents": 0,
   "completed": 0,
   "failed": 0,
   "killed": {
    "parent": 0,
    "user": 0,
    "system": 0
   },
   "refused": {
    "depth_limit": 0,
    "concurrency_limit": 0,
    "budget": 0
   },
   "by_type": {}
  },
  "safety_stops": 0,
  "is_error": false,
  "num_turns": 4,
  "subtype": "success",
  "api_error_status": null,
  "result": "I wrote `out/reorder.json` with daily demand and order quantities for all 11 current items. I haven't checked the numbers beyond the single run.\n\n- **Items to order:** 8 of the 11 need an order. SK-6313, SK-6893 and SK-9676 don't, because stock on hand plus open orders already covers their need.\n- **Censored days:** 66 item-days were excluded because the shelf ran empty (on-hand at close was 0). Promotion days were checked first, so a promotion day that also ran empty counts as a promotion day.\n- **Code changes:** The old codes SK-1732 and SK-6729 are merged into SK-6313 and SK-1686. Their sales, promotions and purchase orders are reported under the new codes.\n- **On order:** Only purchase orders with status open or shipped count. Received and cancelled ones are ignored.\n- **Rounding:** Order quantities use the unrounded demand average. The 2-decimal demand figures in the file are for reporting only.",
  "ttft_ms": 2344,
  "type": "result",
  "duration_ms": 13233,
  "uuid": "[REDACTED]",
  "ttft_stream_ms": 1278,
  "time_to_request_ms": 441,
  "first_content_frame_ms": 1278,
  "queued_turn_count": 0,
  "result_index": 0
 }
]